A cheery optimism is a politician’s constant companion. Which is why as survey after survey shows the Narendra Modi-led NDA poised to return to power, opposition politicians have been reminding one and all of what happened in 2004 when all poll predictions went horribly wrong and the Congress-led UPA bested the Vajpayee government. Is ‘Modi Shining’ 2019 going to be a sequel to the ‘India Shining’ of 2004, an illusory bubble that is about to burst, is the big question? My answer: yes and no.

In the age of 24 x 7 news, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the master of political theatre, his every move designed to maximize eyeballs. Which is why a simple tweet from him on Wednesday morning that he was to address the nation across media platforms at noon was enough to set news channels into a frenzy. Since it was an announcement to be made in the backdrop of a Cabinet Committee on Security meeting and within weeks of the Balakote air strikes, the general impression was that it must relate to Pakistan.

The battle has well and truly begun, the election commission has sounded the bugle for elections 2019. Elections are both a marathon cum steeplechase with many crazy jumps and hurdles along the way so making predictions at the start of the arduous race is hazardous. And yet, let me place 10 reasons why I believe Narendra Modi is the clear front runner as of now.

As the temperatures sharply dip in the national capital, the political heat is rising. The BJP’s defeat in three Hindi heartland states means that we enter a big general election year with a marked shift in momentum. A galvanized opposition, restive allies and murmurs of dissent within, suddenly the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duopoly no longer seems quite so impregnable.

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In 2004, a few weeks before the general elections and a day after the Lucknow stampede in which 21 poor women were killed while collecting free saris, then prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee admitted to me in an interview that the tragedy had dented the ‘India Shining’ image being aggressively promoted by his government. “There are areas of darkness, no doubt about it, and we should be worried,” he said with a contemplative air typical of the man. It was almost as if amidst the euphoria of a near-certain re-election, the politician in the hotseat sensed his own limitations.

Amit Shah is often credited as the BJP president who has converted Indian elections from routine local fights into an all-out life and death ‘war’. Little surprise then when Mr Shah was quoted as having told a gathering of BJP social media activists in Pune that they must see themselves as ‘soldiers going into battle who take no prisoners’. Mr Shah may have been only trying to motivate his flock but the sharp rhetoric reflects a new election dynamic where a tweet, a Facebook post or a WhatsApp forward are the modern-day arrows and bullets aimed at bruising political opponents.

February is arguably the nicest month weather-wise in the national capital: the icy Himalayan wind gives way to a gentler cool breeze signaling a gradual change of seasons. This time, it also marks a possible shift in political temperature ahead of a big election year.

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